William Ruto has pandered to Mt. Kenya throughout this election season, and even longer. Yet he failed to know the right venue for his last rally.
Azimio duped him that we were interested in Nyayo. He put up a fight to have Nyayo. Azimio was never interested in Nyayo!
Ruto should have done his last rally in Kasarani. For someone banking entirely on Mt Kenya votes, his failure to know that Kasarani was the most suitable venue (Mt. Kenya lives on Thika Road) is one more reason UDA/kk minions should worry about the man’s political instincts.
Nyayo was the most unfit venue for his last rally. The nearest low income area to Nyayo is Landi Mawe, which is 90% Azimionated. South C & B, Langata, etc are not areas you get numbers. To get crowds he had to source from Gikomba, Muthurwa etc. Wasapere never turned up!
The only reason Ruto stuck to Nyayo was two-fold:
1. He hoped to mobilize for Langata, where Nixon Korir is facing an early defeat. Even this, the only place in Langata he could have sourced support is Mugomoini Ward, as the rest of the wards are middle class neighbourhoods.
2. He focused on Azimio’s claim Nyayo, unaware that Azimio was duping him to have the venue. Azimio was never interested in Nyayo. They put him through a charade just to make him not bolt out of Nyayo. They baited him.
Ruto avoided Kasarani for one more reason. It is not easy to fill Kasarani up. Ruto knows this too well, as (4yrs ago) he attended a swearing in there with 3/4 of the stadium EMPTY. It takes a city animal to fill Kasarani, and that’s what Raila Odinga did yesterday.
Why is it easy for Raila Odinga to rally his base to Kasarani? Because Raila’s city base are used to Kasarani. It is the home of Mashemeji Derby. The Raila Gor-AFC fanbase treks to Kasarani all the time. They know the place and its many gates. It is their HOMEGROUND!
Which brings me to one more reason Ruto Nyayo rally FLOPPED.
Ruto lacks a city base. He is not a proper city politician. It is Raila Odinga (2005- 2007) and Uhuru Kenyatta (2002, 2013, 2017) who introduced him to their city support bases.
In this election, Ruto is banking on Uhuru’s core base. Wasapere. He is also hoping that Mudavadi/Wetangula and greenhorn Havi/Sakaja will get him Luhya vote. Nairobi luhyas vote Baba and in this election they’re still going to vote Baba. Raila’s city base is INTACT.
Anyone giving Ruto more than 400,000 votes of the city’s nearly 2m votes is duping him. I conclude by saying this – actually repeating it – that Ruto lost this election on Mach 9, 2018. He should have allowed BBI, in it he had a constitutional office to go to.
Dikembe Disembe is a political researcher and writer.