Azimo-One Kenya flagbearer Raila Odinga is headed for a round one victory in the upcoming August 9th general elections by scooping 51.3 percent of the total votes cast in the final tally, followed by his main competitor William Ruto of the Kenya Kwanza Alliance with 45 percent.
This final tally sees Mr. Odinga garner approximately 8 million votes while DP Ruto will have 7 million of the total votes cast with a total voter turnout of 71 percent – about 15.6 million Kenyans.
Patterns from the last three elections show Raila Odinga, the Azimio-One Kenya candidate consistently scored 44% in the elections of 2007, 2013, and 2017, and has a headstart of the same (44%) this election without GEMA. This percentage currently equals 6.9 million voters in the current register.
Adding this to 20 percent from President Uhuru Kenyatta’s fraction of GEMA and his traditional 5 percent from the region accumulates to 1.3 million votes thrusting him to an emphatic 8 million votes in the national tally.
On the other hand, with an assumption that DP William Ruto has inherited the Uhuruto 2013 and 2017 support bases wholesomely, the duo received 50 and 54 percent respectively giving an average of 52 percent ( 8 million votes) headstart for William Ruto with Uhuru Kenyatta’s full support.
William Ruto goes into the election fractured, without President Uhuru Kenyatta’s backing. If the Kenya Kwanza candidate has 80 percent of GEMA intact, the remaining 20 percent is with President Uhuru Kenyatta and will vote for Raila Odinga.
For the DP to win this election, he needs 95 percent of the GEMA nation fully behind him, including Uhuru Kenyatta, as in 2013 and 2017 which is an impossibility.