Raila Odinga needs less than 10 percent of the national vote tally from Mt Kenya, a region that has previously voted against him, to be the next President of Kenya. This premise is based on the fact that Mr. Odinga’s 44 percent base of 2013 and 2017 has remained intact.
The Azimio flagbearer’s core support is the Luo, Kamba, and Luhya votes. If his 44 percent of the total national vote is intact, it means he only needs 6 percent to hit the 50 percent plus1 mark.
The total vote in the 2017 election was around 15,593,050 votes. 6 percent of 15,593,050 is 935,583 votes. (935,583 is equivalent to 16 percent of GEMA’s vote).
This simply means that Raila only needs 16 percent of GEMA’s 5.6 million votes to become our next Head of State.
If the Kenya Kwanza candidate William Ruto has his Kalenjin constituency and 80 percent of GEMA intact, the remaining 20% of GEMA is with President Uhuru Kenyatta.
The Kalenjin and GEMA communities both formed Uhuru’s and Ruto’s core support in 2013 and 2017. Just like the Luo, Luhya, and Kamba communities formed the Raila-Kalonzo core support in 2013 and 2017.
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The 6.7 million votes comprise Kalenjin votes which are 2.3 Million plus 4.4 million GEMA (80 percent of GEMA’s 5.6 million). Raila’s 44 percent is equivalent to 6.9 million Luhya, Luo, and Kamba. An extra 935, 583 votes is the minimum number of votes required to push him past 50 percent plus 1.
Therefore, the level of effort needed by Uhuru and Raila is low compared to what Ruto requires to win. This is because Ruto’s core support of GEMA and Kalenjin can only manage 6.7 million votes at best.
If Uhuru and Raila are capable of collecting 5.6 million BBI signatures in just 1 week, would convincing 900,000 Kikuyus be so hard?
Collecting 5.6 million signatures in 1 week, translates to collecting 800,000 signatures in one day, 100,000 signatures every hour and 1,666 signatures every minute. If this epic feat was achievable in one week, who do you think was behind it? Raila’s men in black or the System?
Would collecting 5.6 million signatures be possible without a well-oiled provincial administration?
The level of effort therefore needed by Uhuru and Raila is low compared to what Ruto requires. And this is because Ruto’s core support of GEMA and Kalenjin can only manage 6.7 million votes at best.
If Uhuru and Raila are capable of collecting 5.6 million BBI signatures in just 1 week, would convincing 900,000 Kikuyus be so hard?
