From Tononoka to Kasarani the ground is swelling. Firimbi Time.

11 mins read

Azimio supporters rolled into Tononoka grounds in Mombasa like thunder and the message they sent to the whole country is clear. They want to help send the Azimio leadership of Raila Odinga and Martha Karua to State House on Tuesday, August 9, 2022, to govern the country and lead Kenya to a better and greater future.

Tononoka is my home really. My elder sister and her family way back to our aunt lived in Makupa and the ports area for generations. In fact, it was my elder sister who introduced us to urban life. We loved our village life but she goes to Mombasa and she is the urban symbol for us and we liked her. She took us to Mombasa.

Then I come to work at Mombasa Polytechnic as a lecturer in 1984 and I live there in Tudor for years. So that is my home and the last time we were at Tononoka was 2017 when we went there for the elections. I have friends there who are folks on the ground running businesses and all they have told me is that if Hassan Omar had run for the senate in 2017 or even now he could win it. They liked him his first term as senator. So that is my Mombasa politics.

William Ruto had been crying for a whole week that he was denied access to Tononoka to hold his last rally in Mombasa. Ruto and his team were very much allowed to hold their rally at those famed grounds and he came in with a handful supporters that could hardly fill a quarter of the grounds.

The strangest thing about the Ruto rally there is that it was led by Mike Sonko who rode in to bring the boss with Hassan Omar hanging on to Sonko’s shoulder.

What happened to Kingi, Jumwa, and all those UDA heroes who were supposed to transform the entire Coastal politics and put William Ruto in control of the Coast? Why is Sonko who just joined the group now leading Ruto in the Coast? That tells you the UDA project at the Coast is a complete flop. What else is new?

This was Ruto in Tononoka led by Mike Sonko their new hero.

The big hope within the Ruto camp has been the overblown story that Ruto has taken Raila votes from Western, Coast, Ukambani, and Turkana.

I usually ignore it because most of that is from UDA twitterers who pay no attention. Those fellas have no interest in logic or any analysis on things as Kenyans see on the ground. Then the other day I saw Dr. David Ndii in Jeff Koinange show peddling the same delusional crap talk. I have tremendous respect for Dr. Ndii because he is not a bully but just does what he thinks is right. We all do the same thing.

I am sorry for him because here is the deal on the election platform with three days to the election. Ruto having taken over Western is total nonsense. Look at Kakamega in the last week of the election. Azimio and the Raila team were all over there and it looks very good. William Ruto has nothing going there. Then you go to Bungoma and Raila looks to be in a position to get more votes there than he did in 2017.

For the first time Trans Nzoia county is in play for Raila in this Azimio team and it could have a huge impact. At this point George Natembeya is tembeyaring all over there and he is in very good company and Ruto hates him which might just be the best thing for him politically.

DAP K party in Bungoma and Trans Nzioa counties under the leadership of Wafula Wamunyinyi has emerged as a formidable political force in the area and Wetangula and his Ford Kenya are facing an existential crisis as we speak because of that. Bungoma and Nzoia has never looked better for Raila and his team.

In short, it looks like Raila and his coalition will get more votes from Western than it did in 2017. So Ruto can forget about that wishful thinking about getting Western votes. He got Mudavadi and Wetangula and that is it.

Ruto getting Kamba votes is not even worth talking about. They have Muthama and Alfred Mutua and now Sonko. Nobody has heard anything from Muthama during the entire campaign process. We hope he is not sick or anything like that. Alfred himself knows he is a joke. No need to explain. Now Sonko is in. Good luck with that.

So how many votes is Ruto going to get from Turkana county because he put Nanok in his pocket? Doesn’t matter.

So nothing is coming out there. The other thing as surprising as it may seem is that Raila and his team will this time get more votes from Nyanza than they ever had. The so called Luo Nyanza may have the largest voter turn out in history.

I was talking to my niece who is doing her last semester to be a Registered Nurse and she wants me to pay her last fees at the college. I told her I am not paying it until she votes for Azimio and she told me that is not even a question. Bottom line here is that just about all people there with voting cards are going to vote. Never happened before.

Kisii part of Nyanza has always been a wedge issue to fight Raila in Nyanza. Not this time. The folks there are going with their local leaders who are very popular and they are in Azimio. Raila and his Azimio team may get more votes from Kisii than Raila ever got before.

That brings us to the big issue about Mt. Kenya votes. There are more than 4 million registered voters in the Mt. Kenya region. In 2017 92% of those voted in the presidential election and Uhuru got 98% of that vote and won the election by 1.4 million votes. That is how critical that vote is.

Raila got 91,000 votes from the Mt. Kenya region which amounts to less than 2% of the vote.

For Ruto to be in competition this time around he will need the same voter turn out and get 98% of that vote. None of that is going to happen. One of Raila’s smartest moves in this election was to choose Martha Karua as his running mate.

It has helped to change the math big time in the Mt. Kenya region and in many other parts of the country where people feel confident that they have a DP who step into the big office and everything would be alright.

The Azimio team of Raila and Martha will get at least 30% of the vote in Mt. Kenya region. That would be the end of all Ruto’s hopes of going to State House. The team has been very diligent with voters in the region. They are not issuing threats and saying stupid things like “Uhuru wants to kill my kids”.

They are willing to listen and promise to deal with the immediate and long-term issues of the region. They have the vote they need in Mt. Kenya and it could get better and reach 40%. Even less than that is good enough for them and the country.

If Raila gets 1 million votes from the Mt. Kenya region, William Ruto will need 2 million votes from elsewhere just to get back to the Uhuru numbers. Where the heck is he getting that from?

Then comes the big bomb in the elections which is Nairobi County with the largest number of registered voters of any county in Kenya at more than 2 million voters.

Uhuru had 900,000 of those votes in 2017 and Raila got 700,000. In 2022 Raila and his team are going to get those Uhuru votes in Nairobi and they will have more than 1 million votes in Nairobi.

Again Ruto here has to double any votes Raila and Azimio get from the Uhuru voters in 2017. Where does he get them from? Nowhere. UDA party could very well change its name to “Nowhere Party Alliance (NOPA)” on August 10, 2022. Oh my. That will be their problem to deal with.

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