Raila Odinga’s slow exit from national politics is causing a profound reckoning.
The group that’s most alarmed is the Luo and the Kikuyu political class, both for the same reason: Raila is their assured pathway to power.
For the Luo political class, especially the historical holdovers, Raila’s exit spells near doom. They’ve used him for decades as their donkey, on whose bare back they easily ride to power. And once perched on power, they do absolutely nothing to deserve re-election. But they have one consolation – a heavenly providence: so long as Raila is alive and active, and they’re firmly behind him, they’re beyond the reach of the voter’s recall power.
For the Kikuyu, their perennial bogeyman – the gift that keeps giving – may not be around to be used as a scarecrow anymore. The fearmongering and hatemongering that drives their voting masses to the ballot may not have its most portent fuel.
On Raila’s AU bid, these two groups share one thing in common: they are completely opposed to the bid. They may not mouth it in public and in fact, for the Luo group, they passionately support it but deep down, in their private moments, they gnawingly mourn the departure of Baba from the scene.
“Addis Ababa chiegni”.
“Onge kuma Baba dhiye”.
“Odwa en achiel”.
“Andhoke this. Andhoke that”.
Last wails of a dying pathology.
Kikuyu politicians welcomed Raila’s AU bid reluctantly. What choice did they have? Yet it didn’t stop some from trying to sabotage it. Even those in Azimio who failed to deliver their own polling stations urged Raila to abandon the quest, claiming the Kikuyu have realized their folly and will now vote for him in 2027 to the last man. Some also told him Ruto is taking him for a ride (as Uhuru did?).
Their daily prayer is that Ngai causes the mnjaruo to fail.
At ethnic level, the Luo and the Kikuyu find themselves having to deal with an election like no other. The Luo masses are reluctant to inherit Ruto as a community enemy, which means “grievance politics” (my community’s default politics) is harder to peddle now.
For the Kikuyu, again, “hate/fear politics”; makes no sense when they don’t run the place anymore. But old habits die hard and it remains to be seen what more can the broth give.
