President Ruto laid out an elaborate strategy for Raila Odinga’s African Union race which has remained intact for the entire two years of this campaign.
As some of you still whined over the 2022 election loss, some of us moved quick to accept the unfolding political reality and realigned with it – William Samoei Ruto had been declared President and that was it.
I watched Governor Wanga on TV as she ‘fought’ IEBC officials at Bomas. I texted her that it was a ‘lost cause’ and she needed, as someone who was going to head the executive of a county, to not overly entangle herself in that chaos.
In public, though, we kept hoping…
The Bomas chaos was the direct creation of Uhuru Kenyatta’s long con game.
There was a sense of betrayal in the manner in which Uhuru men handled the entire Raila Odinga 2022 bid.
First, it took them long to accept the candidacy of Raila Odinga during which time they did everything to sabotage it. In the early days, they were completely opposed to it.
Having clobbered NASA supporters for much of the period between August 2017 and March 2018 (Handshake occured in March 2018), they were shocked by the Handshake, and how they were to now relate with a man they had been clobbering on the streets just weeks ago.
For much of Uhuru’s presidency, ODM’s stretched hand of peace always met the government’s clenched fist.
Whereas Uhuru amd his men were now enjoying the peace dividends that came with the handshake detente, they didn’t want to share the dividends with the group that had surrendered.
With an implosition in the then ruling Jubilee Coalition, Uhuru men had gained ascendancy, edging Ruto men out, especially in positions of power and profiteering. Sadly, the more power Uhuru men gained on account of handshake and the implosion, the more selfish they got.
The biggest beneficiary was Fred Matiangi, the then Interior CS who also now doubled as the de-facto Deputy President, and the chief implementer of executive fiat. He also became the most selfish.
It has been said that power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.
By the time we arrived in 2022, almost all of Uhuru innercore wanted to be President, with Matiangi emerging as the most ambitious — but there was a problem — none of them could win against William Ruto.
Most of them formed own political parties: DAP-K by Defense CS Wamalwa, UPA by Matiangi, UPYA by Yattani, Munya resuscitated PNU etc. At the same time, to hollow ODM in coast, they formed a coast party (PAA) that they offered Joho and Kingi. Joho declined to abandon ODM. Kingi capitulated.
Why did all top Uhuru CSs form their own briefcase parties?
Yet, despite all these machinations, the person who had a realistic chance against William Ruto, NIS permutation after NIS permutation told them, was Raila Odinga, the man they had orbituarized, politically.
This is the reality they took long to accept, and when it became stark, they grudgingly came around to embrace Odinga, each dragging their briefcase parties along. Azimio ended up being a chaotic coalition of 26 briefcase parties surrounding the sun – the ODM Party.
For people who had spent the entire Uhuru presidency unaware of the passing of time, they arrived in 2022 still drunk with power.
This is the attitude they now transferred to the Raila campaign, where they now insisted on being in charge — after all, they said — Raila men had not delivered past victories.
The biggest mistake of the 2022 election was allowing Uhuru men to take charge of it. By late July, for an election that would be held in early August, the level of dishonesty and disorganization could not deliver victory.
The manner in which President Ruto has run the Raila AUC project has been completely different, and quite frankly, refreshing.
Unlike Uhuru men, the Ruto men quickly understood the critical neccesity of ensuring a Raila Odinga victory.
The nature of political contests decided by the secret ballot is that you cannot really predict how it all pans out.
In a fair electoral environment, if you work hard, chances of winning are always high.
For the last two years, some people have really worked hard, behind the scenes, to deliver this seat.
There is one similarity between Raila’s 2022 and his current AUC race. The candidate. Raila Odinga has given this race the same energy, passion and hard work he puts in electoral contests.
Even those who don’t want him to win agree that the Grand Old Man has given the race his all.
It is for this reason that I agree with Mr. Odinga when he says that whichever way the election goes; any outcome will be a win.
Any outcome.
Dikembe Disembe is a Political Researcher and Writer
