In case you are wondering what’s the state of Luo politics, let me bring you up to speed.
RT. HON. RAILA ODINGA
Raila Odinga is still the ultimate voice in Luo politics.
The Luo is largely, solidly, ODM. Or put differently, ODM is the dominating party in the Luo country.
With regard to 2027 politics, Odinga can vie, or not; though current indications point to the fact that Odinga is out of the ballot.
There are those who want him on the ballot, which is a completely different matter as to whether he can win or will win.
The mistake some of you make is to conflate Raila Odinga’s running in 2027 to Raila Odinga’s winning.
What’s likely to bear in this debate is whether those who want him to run can convince those who believe he cannot make it, to support him nonetheless. In other words, to ‘waste their votes’.
PRESIDENT WILLIAM RUTO
In the absence of Raila Odinga, President Ruto is the heir-apparent of the Luo vote.
There’s the expectation that Odinga will back Ruto for re-election.
The scale of Ruto’s public projects in Luo Nyanza is another factor pulling the Luo vote.
Luo inclusion, through appointments in the senior ranks, has leveraged the President, with national government dwarfing most Luo counties in projects implementation.
The other factor pushing Luos towards Ruto are the numerous idiotic statements coming from Gachagua’s mouth, the virulent garbage directed at the Luo community (see more in ‘Numbers That Count for Little’ below).
Meanwhile, the Luo finds the current anti-Ruto agitation a great entertainment, for which people switch on TVs and watch in amusement, as they see Central Kenya pillaging itself in an unnecessary reaction to ‘Mbadi kuwepo jikoni’, as if Mbadi is a thief!
The point is, there’s nothing happening under President Ruto that’s unprecedented in the ‘lived experience’ of the Luo in Kenya. Ditto police brutality. Baby Pendo was six months old.
MAE OK LWENJWA
This is the factional ideological battle within the Luo community.
From the boda boda to the professor, the divide is most astounding.
One group feels the Luo have been the traditional custodians of the struggle for human rights and good governance in Kenya and should not cede for other interests, ethnic or not.
The other group, where I belong, believes the Luo must cede, to accommodate the present reality where the Luo miraculously found itself on the cabinet table, dragged there by the events of June 2024; and now have a rare mandate to infuse some of its platform issues in the policies of the state.
Mbadi says this chance ‘must not pass’ while others say let it pass, another chance will come. But when, and how?
ORENGO’S SILENCE
Perhaps the loudest noise now is from the silence of the figurehead of the ideological ‘Mae en lwenjwa’ front, the Hon. James Orengo.
It is still unclear what ‘Ajimi’ is planning but whatever it is, he has chosen to bid his time.
There are also claims that he’s been unwell, and may be out of circulation due to ill-health, for which our wishes for quick recovery are heartfelt.
The point here is whether: in Orengo’s surrender, the last vanguard has abandoned the Luo moral outpost.
It is also important to note that we are discussing an old man, getting slowed by mortality.
NUMBERS THAT COUNT FOR LITTLE
It has been touted most recently, in a bid to downplay or dismiss the Luo, that their numbers don’t matter and will have no sway in 2027.
This means that in a certain political corner, the significance of the Luo vote has been reduced to nothing.
What this means is that in that corner, an alliance with the Luo is an alliance with nothing.
This brazen attempt to reduce the Luo to nothing has shocked the community.
Some of us are happy though. We’ve been vindicated.
We’ve been saying that part of the anti-Ruto agitation in Kenya has to do with an attempt to economically isolate and continue impoverishing the Luo.
The Luo refusal to join in their own destruction is being packaged as betrayal of some mythical Gen Z fight for good governance. Where was this Gen Z in 2023, or everyone matured in 2024?
What the impugned corner doesn’t ask itself is whether the Luo want an alliance with it in the first place. No, there is no desperation for a political alliance.
INTERGENERATIONAL CONCLAVE
Unknown to many, including ODM Party supporters, ‘intergenerational equity’ has a clear and constitutional meaning in ODM.
It is one of the stated missions of the ODM Party. It was part of the core platform issues in the post-2013 era and culminated in an internal party contestation for power that pitted the old entrenched guard (“the historicals”) against the younger leaders of the party, then led by the Hon. Ababu Namwamba and Hon. Hassan Ali Joho.
It ended up with the Men-in-Black melee at Kasarani Gymnasium, yours truly was in that hall. I recommend you re-read Okeri Orina Nyabuto’s “ODM vs ODM”.
Be that as it may, the ODM Party is now a party in government and must PLOT the future as a party in government.
The usual hesitation in accepting and adjusting to changed political realities is the reason we are still coming up with delusional ideas about the ‘way forward’.
THE WAY FORWARD…
The way forward is the full implementation of the Mbadi-Atandi budget.
The way forward is the construction of roads, rail, ports and piers.
The way forward is housing and the provision of truly affordable and accessible healthcare for the masses.
The way forward is equality, equity and non-discrimination.
The way forward is strengthening devolution.
The way forward is education for all, on a curriculum that truly produces self-sufficient adults.
The way forward is energy.
The way forward is jobs.
The way forward is securing the homeland.
The way forward is the complete and total defeat of tribalists and their minions.
The way forward is the landslide re-election of President William Samoei Ruto!
THE WAY FORWARD IS KUMI BILA BREAK!
