As the country inches closer to the 2027 elections, the possibility of a presidential runoff, a scenario where no candidate secures the constitutionally required 50% plus one vote is no longer far-fetched.
With President William Ruto facing growing dissent from ODM, who have threatened to field a presidential candidate and a fragmented opposition struggling to unite, the winner of the next presidential election may not capture the seat in the first round of voting.
Positioning himself for this possibility of a run- off, and eventual negotiation with President Ruto is DCP leader Rigathi Gachagua.
There are reports of a budding pact between Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and Gachagua’s Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP). The alleged deal, where Wiper would cede select Nairobi seats in exchange for Gachagua’s support for Kalonzo’s presidential bid is a move by Gachagua to hedge his bets.
For DCP, this positions Gachagua as an indispensable power broker in a post-Ruto political order.
Aligning with Kalonzo, the party’s insiders believe taps into a coalition that could potentially deny Ruto the 50% plus one threshold, forcing a runoff where his support becomes the deciding factor.
Jubilee Party’s presidential candidate Fred Matiang’i’s insistence on a “scientific model” to determine the most popular candidate has exposed deep fissures within the united opposition.
His camp’s belief that he is the most electable figure, backed by data and surveys, clashes with Kalonzo’s long-held claim to the opposition mantle.
If both Matiang’i and Kalonzo proceed to the ballot, the opposition vote will splinter, virtually guaranteeing a runoff. This fragmentation could ironically empower Gachagua, whose numerical strength in Mount Kenya and influence in Parliament would make him a political heavyweight if DCP sweeps seats across Mt Kenya.
Gachagua has previously declared his ambition to become “the new Raila” a reference to Raila Odinga’s long-standing role as Kenya’s master negotiator in post-election power deals.
After being impeached and with legal barriers blocking him from holding a public office, Gachagua envisions a scenario where, even without the presidency, he wields enough political capital to negotiate for power.
In a runoff, Gachagua’s bloc could determine who occupies State House.
If Ruto fails to secure the Mount Kenya vote in the first round, he will have no choice but to engage Gachagua in a delicate negotiation in the eventuality of arun-off.
The DCP leader who has publicly said he has no problem working again with Ruto could demand significant concessions, from cabinet positions to policy influence, in exchange for mobilizing his base behind Ruto.
This, especially if Kalonzo Musyoka’s Wiper Party performs dismally across the country compared to DCP.
If the election indeed goes to a runoff, Kenya will witness a political chess game unlike any before. Ruto, Kalonzo, and Matiang’i will all be contenders for the presidency.
