— First, there’s no Luo-Kikuyu alliance for the 2027 polls.
A political alliance between Luos and Kikuyus should only arise if the current alliance between Luos and Kalenjins collapse. The entire Kikuyu machinery has been set on Luos to collapse the alliance with Kalenjins, which occurred as a result of the truancy of the Kikuyus themselves.
Whenever the Kikuyus run out of luck, their natural “fall back” are always the Luos. This time round we also don’t have ‘luck’.
The main reason, however, why there should be no Luo-Kikuyu alliance, is because such an alliance only serves Kikuyus. It is a pre-election alliance they always need to win power. After the election, they behave as if we are their worst enemies. If that be so, why come seek a pre-election alliance?
Because they’ve made it normal to play us and blame us thereafter; this time any attempt to woo the Luo, whether they introduce “minji”, we must be ready to separate bedroom matters with boardroom matters. In future, once the Kikuyu have de-OATHed, then we can form alliance an alliance of equals.
— Second, there’s no panic.
Dr. Oburu Odinga, unlike his brother Raila Odinga, is handling “Kikuyu crocodile tears” so well. However much they package their anti-Ruto agitation, without Luos entering the war, it is headed nowhere. The historical Luo panic is no more. With Raila, they knew his weak (nationalistic) points and would create conditions that make Raila second guess himself.
One trick they perfected was surrounding Raila with all manner of Kikuyu quacks (court jesters) who built for him castles in the air from morning to evening. With Dr. Oburu, the quacks have been put at bay and the pathway to the future is very clear. We are in to entrench. Onge wuok. This is the reason they’ve been most bitter with Dr. Oburu since ascending to the helm of ODM.
— Third, if it’s working, don’t fix it.
According to Dr. Oburu, the coalition with President Ruto is working and there’s no need to fix that which is working. This is where the mantra “we can’t exit government to go look for it out there, then return” comes from. ODM will not leave government neither will it be used as the ladder (ngas) to bring any group back to govt. ODM has no problems with Kikuyus supporting Ruto. The Kikuyus have a free choice to decide who they back. Their attempt to decide for ODM who to back is normal for a drowning group, but ODM is not the straw to clutch on. Those waiting for a protracted, antagonistic negotiations for 2027 are wasting their time. Dr. Oburu will agree with President Ruto on what’s most realistic and present it to the ODM Party and the Luo community.
— Fourth; Luo unity, above all else.
The Luo community is the anchor community for the ODM Party. It is the base (substructure) of the ODM Party. The superstructure (walls and columns and roof) may be other communities but the Luo provide the base for the ODM Party. Luo unity is therefore critical for ODM survival. You can see that despite all the permutations the Kikuyus have been on since their June 2024 misadventure; the one they’re most desperate to achieve is to divide “kill ODM”. You can also see that all their efforts have so far hit a dead end because they’ve been unable to divide the Luo. Without divisions within the Luo, the ODM party will remain steady nationally and the ODM party will deliver the vote to President Ruto. Sowing divisions among Luos is therefore the easiest way to divide ODM. So far, little has been achieved. We are dealing with their puppet in this front, James Orengo.
— Fifth, the buck stops with the President!
Whereas President Ruto appeals both to the Luo and the Kikuyu, and seems to be convinced that he can win it both ways, he has so far managed to handle the delicate balance between “Luo hopes” and “Kikuyu fears”, above which flows the politics of Kenya. Dr. Oburu is keeping Luo hopes in check. Left in the cold for years, the Luo have this understandable urgency to emerge. On the other, the irredentist kikuyu, long sold to delusions of infallibility, have their mortal fears of the future. A Kenyan president who finds a middle ground between Luo hopes and kikuyu fears, rules to full term. Such a president has solidity.
