The handshake between Raila Odinga and President Ruto and the earlier one between Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta differ in a large measure. I will sum it thus: for the Uhuru handshake, “Raila the person” was in government but “Raila the institution” was not.
For the Ruto handshake, for some strange reason, “Raila the person” is not in government but “Raila the institution” is in government. Oxymoron, I know.
The handshake between Raila Odinga and President Ruto is being implemented as a handshake between Raila Odinga and the government. In other words, this handshake extends to the “functioning” of government.
In contrast, the 2018 handshake between Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta did not scratch even the “surface” of government.
You will recall that soon after the handshake, Uhuru had to keep explaining that the handshake he had with Raila was never to “bring Raila into government”. Why was this necessary?
Whereas Uhuru kept “Raila the person” in government; his machine blocked “Raila the institution”. The result was that the “core” of government remained intact. Rotich read two more budgets.
Raila himself took the bait and kept distancing himself from government. Big mistake. I will return to the danger this posture created, later.
Surprisingly, the person who battled Uhuru for the “core” of government was William Ruto. Ruto men battled Matiangi more than Raila men.
Yet as Ruto ‘fell’, the biggest beneficiary of the 2018 handshake was CS Fred Matiangi, whom Uhuru added the responsibility of “running government” alongside him, through Executive Order No. 1 of 2019.
Matiangi had disdain for Raila the entire period. He stonewalled Raila the entire period. He wanted Uhuru to convince Raila to back him (Matiangi) for 2022 instead of Raila himself running. He kept saying Ruto would win if Raila contested.
The only institution which stood between Matiangi and an Uhuru/Raila backed presidential ticket was the NIS which kept opposing his bid on the basis of sobering results of polls after polls the agency had been conducting which showed that in the entire opposition cast, Raila Odinga was the most portent against an emergent Ruto.
What we observed was that Matiangi battled Raila more than he battled Ruto. Whereas he implemented the removal of Ruto from the government’s inner sanctum, which ploy was made possible by Raila creating the “conducive political atmosphere”, when that battle was ‘won’, Matiangi entrenched himself, rather than entrench Raila.
Because of the nature of this current handshake, with “Raila the institution” right inside government, it will be interesting to see how “Raila the person” will pull his “shadow” from the government and use it to wage a war against the same government.
Ruto is shielded by “Raila the institution”. If Raila is to battle Ruto he has to first remove his “tentacles”, now deeply entrenched in government. That is, “Raila the person” has to first battle “Raila the institution”.
Can Raila create a new “institution”? Yes.
Can his new “institution” deliver 2027 for him? No.
Omiyo, wabed uru ei sirkal waweuru walo.
Kumi bila break. 
Team Ruto.
Dikembe Disembe is a Political Researcher and Writer
