The Luo-Kalenjin-Luhya-Coast-Somali-Maa Alliance vote has always dwarfed any GEMA+ permutation if 2005 referendum and 2007 election was anything to go by.
It is this realization which forced Mwai Kibaki henchmen to plot 2012 election (which Kibaki unconstitutionally extended to March 2013) with the Kalenjin in their sandbox.
Why was it important to ensure the Luo and the Kalenjin, added to solid Luhya, Coast and North Eastern never approach a future election on the same side? It is because they have the numbers.
Immediately after the formation of the Grand Coalition government, the Kibaki regime begun actively sponsoring implosion in the ODM Party so much so that by the time 2013 arrived, Pentagon had been hollowed out: Ruto was out, Balala was out, Mudavadi moved to UDF, and Joe Nyaga (who added no numerical value to ODM but still bagged a ministerial role) was relegated to oblivion — he ended up supporting Uhuru in 2013.
What this meant was that the entire pentagon, the team that had delivered the 2007 electoral shock, had by 2013 collapsed totally.
Raila responded to this collapse by crafting a new ‘Pentagon’, propping up Joho in Coast to replace Balala, and Oparanya in Western to replace Mudavadi. As to whether the two new pointmen delivered better than their predecessors, the answer is no.
If the Luo-Kalenjin alliance stick, it will be the first time since 2007 that the repeat of that election is waged. Remember Kalonzo stood for election in 2007 so his Kamba vote can be counted out.
What more, Joho and Oparanya will in 2027 have matured, now capable of delivering solid blocs.
Whereas Kibaki won using tactics such as voter suppression and ballot stuffing, and partisan recruitment of critical poll officials (to help facilitate easy rigging) such is only possibile with state machinery, which is now fully in the hands of the Luo-Kalenjin-Luhya-Coast-Somali-Maa Alliance.
Ruto is the incumbent and incumbency has its advantages. Ruto also happens to have the numbers. I predict a William Ruto landslide victory in 2027. Kumi bila Break.
