“Those whom the gods want to destroy, they first make mad”.
Babu Owino, a Luo, abandoned the Luo Party called ODM for a Babu Owino Party.
He believed he can get Luo votes because he’s a Luo, which is to mean he hoped ‘tribalism’ will get him the Luo votes.
The other reason Babu abandoned ODM is that he believed the next vote bloc he desperately needed — the Kikuyu vote — wasn’t going to be cast on an ODM ticket. This is actually true.
For most Kikuyus, the bastardization of ODM for the last 20 years has made ODM a thing to not touch — even with a long stick.
Babu was building his Nairobi gubernatorial campaign on a ‘dual strategy’ of getting Luo votes and Kikuyu votes as two ethnic blocs, then getting top-ups from other dwellers of Nairobi.
This is the strategy now backfiring badly on him. I, for once, told him it would be very difficult to pull it through.
The first weak point of that strategy was bringing Luo votes and Kikuyu votes in one basketball.
Historically, this works only one way. It works when a Kikuyu is the main beneficiary. It has never worked when tables turn. It is what must first be cured.
The second weak point of the Babu strategy was to assume the Luo will vote outside ODM. Some Luos will but many won’t.
The vast majority of Luos can vote outside ODM only if ODM is dead. This has been the reason for the relentless attacks on ODM. To scare its Luo base away. It now appears Luos haven’t been scared enough to exit ODM.
The failure of the Luo to exit ODM brings another problem for that ticket. The Kikuyu know if Babu exits ODM but ODM remains strong, with Luos still solidly in ODM, he doesn’t solve their immediate problem of destroying ODM.
Anyone incapable of destroying ODM is unattractive to the Kikuyu base.
The reason you see Sifuna still talking of raiding ODM and taking all its branch chairmen is because he needs to demonstrate to the oath-takers that he is doing something about destroying ODM.
Babu has to do the same to get murima votes. Without the total destruction of ODM, they add no value to the now Kikuyu-led opposition hence, in the equation of Gachagua, brings NOTHING to the table.
What can save Babu is if Luos, regardless of their membership of ODM, vote for him; and, if Kikuyus, regardless of their oathed fear/hate of Luos, and if their membership in DCP, vote for him too. My prediction is that this might not happen.
Upto yesterday, ODM still treated Babu with kid gloves because internally, the party still nursed the possibility of Babu returning; not because they think he’s a strong candidate, but because the party still did not have a credible candidate to present to the ballot.
The entry of incumbent Nairobi Governor Johnson Sakaja and Kasarani MP, the sportspesa mogul Ronald Karauri, solves the ‘credible candidate’ challenge for ODM.
The ODM now has two candidates they can present on the ballot, both with one vital element needed in Nairobi politics: majan, or as we call it in Suna East, jamna.
“Quos Deus vult perdere, prius dementat”.
Dikembe Disembe is a Political Researcher and Writer
