Kenyans must be looking around in shock when they see politicians who actually do no other work in their lives, campaigning like the General Election in Kenya is next month or possibly next week.
It is insane. And strangely enough the so called opposition raving all over the place in the country never go to hold rallies and meet Kenyans.
They hold endless press conferences in their expensive suits and dresses plus posh Range Rovers and sing about how important they are. In real politics you would never go anywhere with that. They will find that out pretty quick.
Now the thing that poked my mind was when Martha Karua and Kalonzo Musyoka were talking about 2027 elections being like the 2002 elections when Kenyans ended the 24 year old Moi dictatorship. Does any of them know what happened in 2002 and ten years before that?
Well in 2002, the same enigma they are furious about today, namely Raila Amolo Odinga took Kenya by storm when he declared the “Kibaki Tosha” as the matra to beat Moi. The “Kibaki Tosha” political vision came after a very painful period in Kenya politics.
When people like the same Raila Odinga, Keneth Matiba, Martin Shikkuku, George Anyona, Charles Rubia, Wangari Mathai and thousands of Kenyans including University students were being brutalized, murdered point blank in the streets of Nairobi with so many in prison, detention and Moi torture chambers Kenyans pushed Moi to accept an end to his one party dictatorship.
The first multi party election in Kenya was held in 1992 and the whole country thought it was a walk over for democracy for the republic. The greedy politicians ruined everything.
The FORD party which had been at the fore front of the battle for multi-party elections in Kenya broke up into ten pieces. There was FORD Kenya, Ford Asili and later on FORD People led by Moi’s handy man Nyachae. It was tragic and painful for Kenyans to watch the opposition giving Dictator Moi a very easy win to stay as president.
Today the Kenyan opposition to the Ruto government has a new saviour who was Ruto’s big warrior when in 2023 Kenyans launched a Saba Saba uprising against the Ruto government and literally tried to kill Raila Odinga by bombing his own car when he was in there fighting for Kenyans.
Is this the new salvation for Kenya?
Unholy trinity: How tribalism, lies and bribery are shaping 2027 race
Is this man the new saviour for Kenyans to achieve their cherished goals as a country and not as tribes?
Probably not and time will tell.
Some crucial facts on Kenya politics in the last two decades.
Ethnicity and Violence: New Dynamics in Kenya’s Elections?
Kenya has had six multiparty elections since 1991 when the one-party state ended, following pressure from civil society and donors. All elections since then have been high-stakes ethnic contests. Three of the last six elections culminated in large scale ethnically targeted violence to win the presidency. In 1992 and 1997, under President Daniel arap Moi, […]
Kenya has had six multiparty elections since 1991 when the one-party state ended, following pressure from civil society and donors. All elections since then have been high-stakes ethnic contests.
Three of the last six elections culminated in large scale ethnically targeted violence to win the presidency. In 1992 and 1997, under President Daniel arap Moi, state sponsored Kalenjin militia killed Kikuyu in the Rift Valley to keep them from voting.
Then, in 2007-8 following the declared win of President Mwai Kibaki, violent politically organized Kalenjin gangs attacked Kikuyu and other upcountry ethnic groups in the Rift Valley, followed by retaliatory violence against Kalenjin, Luo, and other civilians in the Rift and elsewhere in Kenya.
The International Criminal Court’s (ICC) decision to charge six individuals for the 2007-8 post-election violence, five of whom were well known politicians, dampened the prospects of a recurrence in the 2013 and 2017 elections; they were relatively peaceful compared with earlier ones, albeit still contested. Before that, in 2002, ethnic violence was not on the cards as the two opposing candidates were both Kikuyu.
One factor explaining the comparatively peaceful elections of 2013 and 2017, was the defensive alliance of Uhuru Kenyatta, a Kikuyu, and William Ruto, a Kalenjin to run for president and deputy president.
The ICC had accused both of organizing violent ethnic attacks against each other’s communities amounting to crimes against humanity in the 2007-8 violence. Their unusual pact and local efforts at peacekeeping dampened the incentives for targeted ethnic violence in both elections.
Issues and Dynamics
With Kenya gearing up for its seventh multi-party election on August 9th, important questions arise concerning the role of ethnicity and violence: if they will reassert themselves, or if the dynamics have changed.
Recent events suggest new twists in our understanding of both factors. President Kenyatta and Deputy President Ruto have become antagonists, while still part of the same government. The catalyst for the breakup was a surprising 2018 ‘handshake’ between Kenyatta and his long-standing political opponent, Raila Odinga, followed by a failed initiative to increase the size of the executive and “co-opt ethnic elites” before 2022.
Since then, Kenyatta has continued to support Odinga, a Luo and his former opponent, if not his nemesis in the last three elections, rather than his deputy, also an ex-ally of Odinga’s in the 2007 election. Ruto felt betrayed by the ‘handshake’ given the agreement behind Kenyatta’s and Ruto’s 2013 anti-ICC alliance: that Kenyatta would support Ruto for president in 2022.
Kenyatta, in turn, was put off by Ruto’s premature campaigning for the presidency and attacks on him, including in his Kikuyu heartland of Central Province.
Given these political upsets, and the fact that this is the first time ever when there is no Kikuyu candidate for president, how should one view ethnicity and violence as factors going into the August 2022 elections? What has changed and what has remained the same?
Ethnicity Now
Ethnicity is not fixed or primordial but malleable. Individuals are members of large ethnic groups, subsets of that, and clans which become politically salient at different times, in different contexts, often because of their size.
In Kenya, colonialism wed geography to ethnicity and cemented its salience. Freedom of movement was restricted, and individuals mostly were confined to their home areas. Kenyans were forbidden from forming national political parties until the 1950s. The legacy of this period has given politics a strong regional and ethnic thrust. Parties are largely non-programmatic and substantively indistinguishable, with their heads viewed as chief ethnics in charge and ethnicity a reliable predictor of voting patterns.
To win the presidency under the current rules, a candidate must gain 50% plus 1 of the popular vote and in no less than 24 of Kenya’s 47 counties. This entails creating cross-ethnic alliances. Studiesshow that communities with co-ethnics in power at all levels receive more public goods than those with non-co-ethnics.
Individuals support their own partly for this reason and to avert losses including land, trade licenses, and life. Given past political retribution and violence against non-co-ethnics, voters also feel safer electing a co-ethnic or at least being part of a winning coalition where they are protected. Leaders, in turn, fear loss and have been willing to use violence to gain or retain power rather than cede it to ethnic others.
Who wins the presidency matters a lot. Kenya is statist with a high level of economic and political dependency on the state. Notwithstanding the presence of a vibrant private sector, individuals still need state support on many matters and fear being locked out or punished if they don’t have it. Hence, the perceived need to control the state, which also has been a source of elite accumulation, and to have a trusted co-ethnic in charge.
Ethnicity versus Class
Ruto has appealed to Kenyans as a ‘hustler’, a self-made man who can improve the lives of ordinary people and is fighting against the old wealthy ‘dynasties’ of the past, meaning Kenyatta, whose father was president, and Odinga, whose father was vice-president.
Ruto has been courting voters for the last five years including but not limited to Central Province. He is a populist and an engaging speaker who often skirts the truth but connects with the crowd. His wealth cannot be explained as the upward mobility of a self-made man born poor, but instead is largely thought to come from the state and other questionable ventures, including Moi’s YK92 fundraising scheme.
Ruto’s target is youth, certain elites who have received funds from him or hope to, and the disenchanted poor looking for better lives. However, only 39% of youth, who also have ethnic identities, are registered to vote.
Ruto’s following in the Kikuyu heartland of Central Province has an ethnic rationale, even if it is a counter-intuitive one, and different from the past. Some Kikuyus believe that Kenyatta made a deal with Ruto in 2013 to support him for the presidency and should not go back on it.
Often accused of being untrustworthy, and underhanded, while perceiving themselves as serious, hard-working and entrepreneurial, some Kikuyu feel that Kenyatta’s support of Odinga rather than Ruto cements the perception of unreliability and could make life more difficult for them in business and politics.
They fear ethnic retaliation from Ruto should he not get into power, including in the Rift where he was accused of violent crimes leading to Kikuyu deaths, displacement, and injury in 2007-8. They worry that the existing fragile peace may not hold if Ruto is defeated, and they will suffer economically because of Kenyatta’s about-face.
Others are in favour of Ruto as payback for Kenyatta allegedly not adequately supporting his own co-ethnics. They point to measures such as Kenyatta’s crackdown on illegally imported Chinese goods which they sold, the importation of eggs cheaper than locally produced ones, and the low price of milk, which is controlled by the monopoly buyer Brookside, owned by the Kenyatta family.
Is this then a sign of co-ethnic vengeance, the rise of class-based thinking, or something particular to this election where for the first time no Kikuyu is running for president and both candidates have been or are part of the current administration?
Another reason given for Central Province’s turn to Ruto is the historic demonization of Odinga, both politically and culturally. Politically, Kikuyu leaders have attacked Odinga and his father as dangerous radicals who have threatened their power since the 1960s. Kikuyu constituents now say “the Kenyattas told us Odinga was the devil for years and that we should not vote for him, so why are they now telling us to do so?”.
Additionally, many Kikuyu still view all Luo as ‘boys’ rather than men because they are uncircumcised and would be unwilling to vote for Odinga on those grounds alone, a clear indication of the power of negative ethnicity.
Against this scenario, other Kikuyu and many individuals from various ethnic groups support Odinga as someone who has fought for democracy and human rights, has suffered for justice since the 1990s, and whom they allege was rigged out of wins in his four previous runs for president.
They distrust Ruto, blame him for the 2007-8 electoral violence in the Rift and don’t rule out a repeat blowback. They fear Ruto will repress basic freedoms, dissent, and the press, and could engage in retribution against Kenyatta and other wealthy ethnic elites. Hence, they support Odinga both in and outside his Nyanza heartland.
Beyond Mount Kenya’s Kikuyus, the Kalenjin Rift and Luo Nyanza (three of Kenya’s “Big Five” ethnic groups), the Kamba’s Kalonzo Musyoka has been weaned back into the Odinga camp with promises of cabinet appointments, while leaders of Kenya’s Western Luhya have mostly decamped to Ruto saying they found Odinga untrustworthy in the last election, and as likely because Odinga did not appoint Musalia Mudavadi as his running mate.
The more general question is whether constituents in all parts of the country, much of which is not ethnically homogenous and consists of over 40 ethnic groups, will continue to vote with their ethnic chiefs or will go their own way based on economic and other interests. Also at issue is turnout, which could make the difference between a first-round win and a run-off.
Prospects of Violence
Large-scale electoral violence in 2022 seems unlikely. The presidential contenders have few incentives to organize and instigate violence and risk inviting another ICC intervention. Already, Paul Gicheru, a Kikuyu lawyer and long-standing Ruto associate, is in the dock, awaiting the ICC’s ruling on alleged ICC witness tampering charges implicating Ruto.
It seems equally unlikely that ordinary Kenyans would participate in organized violence to get their candidate into power. Many are fed up with Kenya’s debt, corruption, and their resulting downward mobility, while cynically apathetic about the old guard’s infighting for power.
Others disdain violence, as many suffered, and participants gained nothing by following their co-ethnic instigators in 2007-8. Furthermore, while Kenya still has numerous gangs, the former leader of the ethnic organization Mungiki, Maina Ngenga, who spearheaded retaliatory violence in the Rift, has aged into the establishment and is now running for senator in Laikipia, with Odinga’s support.
This does not preclude sporadic violence around the election or long protracted legal battles over the results, which could be contested given the low trust in institutions, including the underfunded election authority, the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC). Unsettling charges of a deep state, rigging, and conditional acceptance of the results already abound.
A close election also could go to a run-off if the two minor parties with presidential candidates syphon off enough votes and neither of the two main candidates meets the threshold for a first-round win. A prolonged election could stoke ethnic tensions and anxieties about violence, which is never completely off the table. Studies show that repeat violence is more likely in countries that have experienced it.
This happened because the Kenyan opposition was too selfish to unite and face Moi with one candidate. The worst part is that at that time Kenyan opposition was in touch with Kenyans at the grassroots all over the country as opposed to our new elite opposition groupings doing their politics in hotels in Nairobi and yelling at Kenyans to support without ever bothering to tell Kenyans what that will achieve for them other than removing William Ruto from State House.
The very people who peddled the same Ruto to Kenyans as the salvation of the country are now running tribal nonsense everywhere telling Kenyans how terrible Ruto is today. Where were your heads and hearts when you were worshipping him so that he could destroy the opposition at the time? You know where your heads were at that time, don’t you?
Raila vows not to betray Kenyans as he prepares to reclaim ODM leadership
Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga now says he will not betray Kenyans as he prepares to give a much-anticipated political direction to his supporters on Friday, on whether or not to formalize the political marriage with President William Ruto.
Raila is expected to take back the mantle of the ODM party leader during the ‘ODM at 20’ convention in Busia County on Friday and in an admission of the weight of his decision, the former premier says the people will be his true north.
“We are not going to betray our people in whatever we do. What we are going to do will be in the interest of our people of Kenya,” said Raila.
He added that he has considered and continues to gather views from his supporters before making the crucial decision.
“I have listened very carefully to the views expressed and I can say they have given me a carte blanche, a blank cheque, and they said they will support whatever we do,” he said.
Raila has been at a crossroads since returning from his failed mission in Addis Ababa, with both the opposition members and the government wooing him to their side.
As he warms up to the formalization of the ODM and Kenya Kwanza pact, Raila also raised concerns over the efficiency of the Social Health Authority (SHA).
“The government is introducing SHA. It is not working, but I know countries where it is working. If it is properly implemented, it will be a game changer for our country,” he said.
Raila’s sentiments come as preparations at Bukiri Primary School in Funyula Constituency, Busia County, for the ‘ODM at 20’ event, entered the home stretch Thursday.
Raila plans meet-the-people tours across the country to collect views
“Wangapi wanasema baba aendelee kushauriana na watu kwanza nipate maoni?”
Speaking during the celebrations to mark 20 years of the ODM party in Busia, Raila avoided commenting about 2027, saying he will be traversing all regions to ensure the views of all Kenyans are captured.
“Wangapi wanasema baba aendelee kushauriana na watu kwanza nipate maoni?” he posed amid applause from the crowd.
“Tutashauriana na ninawahakikishia kwamba tutachukua msimamo ambao utalenga matakwa and haki ya wakenya wote,” he said.
A section of leaders led by Kisii Governor Simba Arati who spoke during the event, had suggested that Raila must be in the ballot.
He said the ODM party’s mission is to lead the country in 2027.
“As ODM party, we are prepared for 2027 by any means, either by ourselves or through coalition to ensure we clinch that seat,” he stated.
He also vowed action against some members he said are trying to wreck the party from within.
Arati had also thanked President William Ruto for supporting Raila in the failed AUC chairperson bid.
In his address, Raila also led the attendees in observing a moment of silence for lives lost in the Turkana ambush attack by suspected militia from the Ethiopian Dassanech community.
Catholic bishops dedicate Lent to prayers against State injustice
The Kenya Conference of Catholic Bishops led by the Conference Chairman Rev. Maurice Muhatia Makumba during the launching of the 2025 Lenten Campaign at Mama Ngina Waterfront in Mombasa.
Catholic bishops have stepped up their push-back against the government by launching a 40-day campaign and prayers against injustice, social and economic ills bedeviling the nation.
Speaking in Mombasa Friday, the clergy condemned runaway corruption, arbitrary abductions, over-taxation and the introduction of a dysfunctional new Social Health Insurance Fund (SHIF).
After months of calls on the government to end abduction and extrajudicial killings, the bishops said all priests and the Church leadership will dedicate the lent period to sensitising Kenyans and praying.
In the campaign christened The Kenya We Deserve, the bishops appeared to wash their hands off the regime some of them supported, saying it had failed to respect the sanctity of life.
“We express profound dismay over abductions and extrajudicial killings that threaten the sanctity of life and our nation,” said their chairman, Archbishop Maurice Muhatia Makumba.
Makumba said the ongoing political campaigns and realignment are meant to divert Kenyans’ attention from their problems and create a euphoria ahead of the 2027 general election.
In a statement read on behalf of all the bishops, Makumba said the emerging ethnic mobilisation was also meant to divide Kenyans and manipulate them.
“Over the decades, the exploitation of ethnic identities for political gain has led to violence and deep societal fractures. Today, we stand resolute in our commitment to learn from these painful lessons that every person, regardless of political affiliations and ethnicities, deserves to be treated with utmost dignity,” he Arch Makumba said.
Makumba, the Kenya Conference of Catholic Bishops (KCCB) chairman, said the church had a renewed resolve to address the people’s pressing issues towards the nation’s desired unity, justice, and hope.
The over 10 Catholic bishops met on Friday at the scenic Mama Ngina Waterfront in Mombasa for the annual ritual of launching the 40 days of Lent.
According to the Kenyan Episcopate, the country is facing many pressing issues that need to be addressed immediately and that all efforts should be deployed to ensure that normalcy is achieved.
The bishops reiterated that Kenya urgently needs to fix its crumbling education system, inadequate and confusing health care services, very high unemployment rate among school finishers, and runaway corruption.
They said that there is blatant abuse of human rights in the country, with many cases of abductions, torture, and killings.
The bishops said that during the Lenten Period, Catholics will observe special prayers on Fridays and fast in order to appease God to save the nation from further deteriorating into messy affairs.
Nyeri Archbishop Anthony Muheria said the bishops have devised five weekly thematic areas that will help shape this year’s Lenten period.
He said the first week focuses on the church’s foundation and stability, while Week Two delves into the evil of corruption, which he equated to cancer that eats away the social fabric of the nation.
‘’Justice has been undermined while perpetrators walk scot-free. The Kenya we desire ought to be a corruption-free one,’’ Archbishop Muheria said.
On Kenyan youth, Muheria said that there lies untapped potential in the way youths can take up active roles to bring development in the country.
In Week Four, he said, the role of civic education to help all access decent education must be attained.
In Week Five, Muheria explained that the Church will pursue a common goal where environmental degradation and exploitation of natural resources need to be tackled, leading to living more sustainably.
Muheria challenged the three arms of government to work together to promote equity.
We aske Raila Odinga the following questions.
If you want to support the William Ruto presidency now and maybe in 2027 can you fight the following.
- That all abductions and murder of Kenyans by government ends right now and victims and those held in custody are released immediately. Kenyan families are in pain about this. They have to matter, don’t they?
2. Can Raila talk to the Ruto government to fix the health system under this failing SHA project. You said you know countries where similar health systems have been successful. Can you help this government to design a health system and payment programs that work for Kenyans instead of imaginary delusions.
I know how the Kenyan health system works because I pay for healthcare for my nephews and nieces everyday and many of them are professional workers in Kenya as teachers, engineers, nurses and pharmacists. Can we sort this out for these young people?
That huge amount of money Kenyans in Diaspora send to our nation is for emergency health needs and school and college fee. It is not for investment which is what we want to do. It is for family needs at this time.
My mother told me when I ended up in Canada as a refugee and got a job pretty fast as tax accountant with Dorothy Gardner Accounting Firm that I was there for the whole family.
She told me I was there for the whole family. It was crazy because in those days there were no cell phones. She said you are not there for yourself. You are there for the whole family. That is my mother and most times it is better not to argue with her. Sylvia Alice Ogalo Adongo is her name.
Kenyan Diaspora Sends Record Remittances Home in July
In dollar terms, the July record is the highest inflows the country has ever had and the new highest record for the year so far, after offsetting January’s high of $412.4 million. Photo: (Handout)
Kenyans living and working abroad sent home the highest ever remittance in July, marking the largest inflow so far this year.
According to weekly data from the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK), remittance inflows in July reached $414.3 million (Sh53.5 billion at the current exchange rate), up from $378.1 million (Sh48.8 billion) in July 2023, representing a 9.6 percent increase.
In dollar terms, this marks the highest inflow Kenya has ever recorded, surpassing the previous high of $412.4 million in January this year.
I ran away from the country and my mother was mad with me. Then I call her two years later and she had to go to the Kenya Post Office and then I call the Post Office and they hand her the phone. She was just laughing and she told me my sisters we there and they want to know what is with me. I talked to my sisters and tried to explain to them that I was fine. It was a joyful conversation.
And sending money home to my mother was a nightmare in 1990 and on. I had to send the money to the Chief of our area who was a very good person. Somehow through the system the Chief got the money and he usually gave it to my mother. Incidentally the same Chief was married to my mother’s sister who was also my babysitter and she always tells me to shut up even now.
Later on the Kenya Post Bank came in to facilitate money transfers to families and the Equity Bank came in and they have been great.
Thanks darling. Now we have MPESA. It comes in one minute. I cannot imagine what you would do with that. You know my plan and it remains secret. God Bless.
ONE SUGGESTION:
Let Kenya develop mobile healthcare programs at all levels of government. I saw how it could in works when I was home in 2018. The health workers have motor bikes and they are trained to diognise peoples health problems and they are called and go to the people who need them and have medical procedures done at the home of the client
Back to the point we need step three of the Raila with ODM joining the government.
3. Raila Odinga has to talk with President William Ruto about the financial mess in the public education systems in in the country at all levels. Universities are shutting down on a daily basis. No country can live with that. And the Ruto government does not even seem to know when schools open and the Kenyan schools have to work with no money. Raila needs to help President Ruto to sort these things out and that is a start. Who knows where this ends.
Kenyans in Diaspora need investment opportunities in Jamhuri. It is very easily doable. Lets talk about that please.
The message to Raila Odinga with his ODM and William Ruto if they join each other for the country, is Focus, Focus and Focus on the needs and rights of the Kenyan People.
Keep Drumming
