The Ol Kalou by-election, triggered by the passing of MP David Kiaraho has become a political referendum for the Mt Kenya region, whose outcome will determine who controls the vote-rich region’s politics in 2027.
Mt. Kenya’s political heavyweights are each seeking to assert dominance through the by-election ahead of the next general elections.
The mini-poll has become a litmus test for Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, the Jubilee Party, ex-DP Rigathi Gachagua, and Martha Karua.
For Rigathi Gachagua, the by-election represents a critical opportunity to assert the dominance of his new DCP party after standing down from Mbeere North, where the ruling party UDA thrashed the united opposition candidate.
Gachagua has dismissed calls for a singe opposition candidate, insisting that his party must square it now with opponents in the region, to end speculation about his waning popularity.
DP Kithure Kindiki on the other hand has publicly vowed to humiliate Gachagua in the Ol Kalou race. Kindiki’s camp views the by-election as a chance to demonstrate how prepared they are for 2027.
For Ruto, the contest offers a real-time test of the Deputy President’s ability to consolidate the mountain vote ahead of 2027. ODM is demanding the DP slot in its 2027 power-sharing negotiations with UDA.
Meanwhile, Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party, through Jeremiah Kioni, is pushing for a unified opposition front, arguing that the seat rightfully belongs to them. Kioni has warned that a fragmented united opposition will hand victory to the ruling UDA.
He wants the DCP and PLP candidates to back the Jubilee Party in the July 16, 2026 by-elections.
Jubilee sees the Ol Kalou race as a chance to reclaim lost ground and gauge the real passions on the ground.
However, with both Gachagua’s DCP and Martha Karua’s People’s Liberation Party (PLP) insisting on fielding their own candidates, the risk of splitting the opposition vote looms large.
Beyond party politics, the Ol Kalou by-election has become a symbolic referendum on the region’s political direction heading into 2027.
Apart from determining who becomes the Olkalou MP, the by-election’s outcome will signal which party truly has the mountain.
