President William Ruto’s 2027 re-election pact with ODM is straining under a widening fight over the spoils of the alliance, with the opposition party demanding the Deputy President slot, a heavy share of Nairobi elective seats and a legally enforceable 50/50 formula for state power.
ODM’s refusal to field a presidential candidate has therefore done little to settle the coalition’s terms.
Instead, it has moved the contest from who will run for State House to who will control the government if Ruto wins.
At the centre of ODM’s demands is the Deputy President position, which the party now regards as an “irreducible minimum” for backing Ruto.
That demand has unsettled the wider Kenya Kwanza arrangement, particularly politicians in Mt Kenya who had expected the Deputy President succession question to remain within Ruto’s existing coalition architecture. The stakes are not confined to State House.
ODM is seeking a substantial allocation of elective positions, particularly in Nairobi, where it wants zoning for the governor, senator and woman representative positions, alongside a sizeable number of constituencies.
ODM is also pushing for a legally binding Memorandum of Understanding governing the next administration.
The proposed arrangement would establish a 50/50 framework for sharing state power, giving the pact a structure beyond 2027.
