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Gachagua’s Politics of Ethnicity Could Hand Ruto an Easy 2027 Victory

DCP Party Leader Rigathi Gachagua is increasingly emerging as a divisive figure in the opposition, with his persistent reliance on ethnic mobilisation threatening to derail efforts to build a united political front against President William Ruto in 2027.

At a time when Kenya needs leaders capable of bringing communities together around a common national agenda, Gachagua appears determined to drag opposition politics back to the familiar and destructive territory of ethnic arithmetic. His remarks during the launch of the Linda Mwananchi Movement offices were particularly telling. Rather than recognise a movement bringing together young people from different communities, he repeatedly appeared to frame it as a Luhya political outfit.

Such an approach risks alienating Kenyans who want a national movement rather than another ethnic political vehicle. It also raises serious questions about whether Gachagua appreciates the importance of building a coalition that transcends regional and community loyalties.

Recent opinion polling further challenges the assumption that political support is determined by ethnicity. A July poll placed Fred Matiang’i at 19 per cent in Central Kenya, ahead of Kalonzo Musyoka at 13 per cent, while President William Ruto and Gachagua tied at 12 per cent. Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna recorded 11 per cent.

Matiang’i’s reported national support of approximately 12 per cent also illustrates his appeal beyond the Kisii community. Opposition leaders should therefore resist the temptation to reduce individual politicians to ethnic voting blocs.

Gachagua’s tendency to label politicians who disagree with him as government moles is equally troubling. In a democracy, leaders have the freedom to make independent political decisions, including engaging with the incumbent government.

With defeating Ruto requiring considerable organisation, compromise and political sacrifice, internal divisions only complicate the opposition’s task. A coalition consumed by ethnic competition and personality clashes risks weakening its own chances of mounting a credible challenge.

More importantly, an opposition government built around ethnic bargaining could find itself fighting over positions and political influence immediately after taking power.

Ultimately, opposition unity requires humility, compromise and respect for political diversity. Gachagua and other opposition leaders must recognise that no individual owns a community or has an exclusive claim to its political support. Without a genuinely national outlook, the opposition risks allowing internal divisions to undermine its own 2027 ambitions.

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