Political analyst and lawyer Paul Mwangi, who served as legal advisor to the late former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, has revealed that the late opposition leader had shown clear signs of not intending to contest the presidency in the 2027 general elections.
Speaking during an interview with a local radio station, Mwangi stated that after the 2022 general elections, Raila’s behaviour and political posture changed significantly, suggesting a departure from his usual pattern of preparing for another presidential run.
“After the last election, he behaved in a way that suggested he would not run again. In very many ways, there are things you could expect him to do at a particular time, and he’s not doing them,” Mwangi said. “There are patterns of things he will say that show you that he’s thinking this in a more long-term view and that he’s not factoring himself as a candidate in the next election.”
Mwangi, who worked closely with Raila for years, explained that the late leader’s conduct after electoral defeats often followed a predictable rhythm. Typically, Raila would begin reorganising his political base, initiating new movements, and instructing his legal team to prepare coalition documents in readiness for the next contest. However, after 2022, Mwangi noted, none of these signs were present.
According to Mwangi, Raila’s growing rapport with President William Ruto was another indicator that he was not preparing for another political battle. “Raila could be a very emotional person and therefore he is not the kind of person who gets very close to you and then fights you tomorrow,” Mwangi said. “If you now check the kind of relationship he was already building with President Ruto and how they were talking and his own reactions to the things they were doing, you start having the feeling he does not intend to fight this guy.”
Mwangi added that Raila’s political passivity after 2022 was uncharacteristic. In previous election cycles, Raila would always find ways to keep his supporters politically engaged. After the 2013 elections, he launched the “Okoa Kenya” initiative, and following the 2017 elections, he spearheaded the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) after the famous handshake with then-President Uhuru Kenyatta.
“This time, however, he did not initiate any major political engagement,” Mwangi observed. “Even though he knew his constituencies were growing politically cold, he was doing nothing to rejuvenate them.”
Mwangi concluded that these behavioural changes were clear signals that Raila Odinga had no intention of contesting the presidency again, marking a quiet end to a political career that spanned decades and defined Kenya’s opposition politics.
